Video 7: Global Banking 2020: Using Scenario Planning to Guide Strategies

Why Should Banks Do Scenario Planning?

(Part 1 of 20) 2:19

In times of high uncertainty, executives often choose one of two paths: They panic like a deer caught in headlights, or they simply make low-information, “gut” decisions. Scenario planning offers a more disciplined approach.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in Banking: Future Growth Models, Lessons Learned from the Financial Crisis, Risk Management, Scenario Planning |

Scenario 1 – Business as Usual

(Part 2 of 20) 1:52

Business as Usual points to incremental, rather than dramatic change. Some of the largest banks do well with the financial environment closely resembling today’s conditions.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in Scenario Planning |

Scenario 2 – Financial Issues

(Part 3 of 20) 1:30

Financial Issues anticipates a world in crisis — for the developed world and for emerging markets – with new financial bubbles, burdensome regulations and rising protectionism. Still, global banking continues much as it is today in some pockets, with the largest institutions doing well.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

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Scenario 3 – New Markets

(Part 4 of 20) 1:40

New Markets expects a big shift in emphasis from the developed world to emerging markets, aided by stiffer regulations in developed markets. It foresees new champions from emerging markets that will dominate their home turf and also other regions.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

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Scenario 4 – Change, Change, Change

(Part 5 of 20) 1:40

In this scenario, banks in the developed world lose traction because of more competition from emerging market banks and also from new business models led by telecommunications companies and retailers.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in Scenario Planning |

How Long Can Scenario Outlooks Remain Valuable?

(Part 6 of 20) 3:44

Scenario plans can remain valuable over the long-term because they are not intended strictly to predict the particular future. Rather, the exercise is about putting a bank through a number of different scenarios, and seeing how it performs under each. That discipline better prepares a bank for a wide range of possible, uncertain futures.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in Scenario Planning |

Advice for Global Bank CEOs

(Part 7 of 20) 4:19

Strategic planning is back. With so much uncertainty, bank CEOs need to rethink where their institution adds value to customers, who those customers are today and who they might be in the future.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in Banking: Future Growth Models, Customer Focused Products, Scenario Planning |

The Big Worries – and Opportunities – for Banks

(Part 8 of 20) 2:31

Tougher regulations and market volatility carry the biggest worries. Emerging markets — not just geographical markets, but also new lines of business — offer opportunities, when accompanied by the right-sizing of an existing business.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in Banking: Future Growth Models, Managing Regulations, Risk Management, Scenario Planning |

How Will the Global Economy Affect Planning?

(Part 9 of 20) 2:47

Worries about the eurozone, including sovereign debt, cloud the picture. Banks need to guard their capital positions.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in Banking: Future Growth Models, Risk Management, Scenario Planning |

Expect Market Exits – and Entries – to Offer New Opportunities

(Part 10 of 20) 2:23

Restructuring and industry consolidation, along with new markets, offer new paths to growth.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in Banking: Future Growth Models, Scenario Planning |

How to Prepare for New Regulations

(Part 11 of 20) 3:50

Avoid putting the various initiatives into silos or pockets. Instead, create an over-arching program for managing regulatory change.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in Managing Regulations, Regulatory Arbitrage, Scenario Planning |

Regulatory Arbitrage, More Regulation Increases the Appeal

(Part 12 of 20) 3:08

Watch for opportunities to increase as countries and regions adopt different levels of regulation.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in Managing Regulations, Regulatory Arbitrage, Scenario Planning |

Emerging Markets — What They Mean for Western Banks

(Part 13 of 20) 2:00

Banks that fail to lay down an adequate footprint in emerging markets will be unable to provide adequate service coverage for their clients and may lose the ability to grow business significantly.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in Banking: Future Growth Models, Emerging Markets, Scenario Planning |

Should You Move Quickly on Emerging Markets?

(Part 14 of 20) 2:43

Followers sometimes avoid the mistakes of the leaders. If the market is large enough, there may be room for a number of followers, as opposed to just one leader.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in Banking: Future Growth Models, Emerging Markets, Scenario Planning |

Should Global Banks Take on Local Partners?

(Part 15 of 20) 1:45

During times of high volatility, such as today, collaboration with local partners is an attractive path for market entry.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in Banking: Future Growth Models |

Evaluating New Markets

(Part 16 of 20) 3:20

To evaluate new markets, look at the economy, the appeal for other global companies and what is most important to your customer base. The ability to set high margins is also important.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in Banking: Future Growth Models, Emerging Markets, Scenario Planning |

Best Markets — Corporate or Retail?

(Part 17 of 20) 3:22

Some governments will require banks to provide extra services as a condition for entry. For example, banks may have to offer retail banking in order to get involved in capital markets.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in Banking: Future Growth Models, Emerging Markets, Retail Banking, Scenario Planning |

Reasons for Optimism

(Part 18 of 20) 3:48

Great volatility and change can create new opportunities. But to exploit that, global banks must be more discerning than in the past regarding their choices of markets and services. Some may find it best to reduce some activities.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in Banking: Future Growth Models, Emerging Markets, Scenario Planning |

How Should Banks Think about Technology?

(Part 19 of 20) 2:20

Technology is one of the biggest headaches for most banks. Yet, large investments are needed in order to meet new regulatory demands. The additional challenge comes in making the new technology also drive new business.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in IT Investments, Scenario Planning |

Making Technology a Competitive Advantage

(Part 20 of 20) 3:07

Organizations with a consistent global IT platform will have a competitive advantage. Banks that do not align systems globally face a significant drag in extra costs.

For additional information on scenario planning and global banking download our free video-enhanced eBook Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights.

Also posted in IT Investments, Scenario Planning |